UNODC has determined the trend of “farm gate prices” of Afghani opium through July 2007. In just the past twelve months it dropped from $ US 140 - 25%. Since July of 2005, the per-kilo price dropped from $ US 167 to $US 105 - a whopping 37%. Says a lot about the “other” war - the war on drugs, and bodes ill for the impact on price and purity in consuming nations around the world.

There could be another factor - in July 2000, the Taleban announced a complete ban on poppy production and then went on to enforce

The UN believes the ban was so effective that production fell by 3,000 tonnes.

Unconfirmed reports from inside Afghanistan now say that if America attacks, the Taleban may reverse that ban.

Many farmers resented the loss of income associated with the ban, and the Taleban may want to win back popular support by allowing people to grown poppies once again.

The sowing season is in October and early November, and the prospect of farmers planting new crops means that opium traders are wondering whether supplies will markedly increase next year.

Original post by RGNewman, MD